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(Consultant picture)
India’s Gross Home Product (GDP) grew on the identical annual common fee in the course of the phrases of the United Progressive Alliance and Nationwide Democratic Alliance governments, at the very least till the coronavirus pandemic struck.
In line with new knowledge launched by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India’s GDP grew at an annual common fee of 6.8 % from 2004-05 to 2013-14—the ten years Manmohan Singh was the prime minister (PM).
Within the first six years of Narendra Modi’s tenure as PM—earlier than the pandemic struck and pushed India right into a recession—India’s GDP once more grew by 6.8 % on a median from 2014-15 to 2019-20.
If the 2 pandemic-hit years of 2020-21 and 2021-22 are taken into consideration, the typical GDP progress fee below Modi drops to five.4 %.
The recently-released annual GDP progress knowledge stretches again to 1951-52. Till now, comparable progress charges for the present GDP sequence with 2011-12 as the bottom yr was out there solely until 2005-06.
The present GDP sequence, launched by the statistics ministry in early 2015, attracted heavy criticism because it confirmed an enormous bounce in progress at the same time as high-frequency indicators painted a grimmer image. As an illustration, the brand new sequence raised the GDP progress fee for 2013-14 to six.9 % from 4.7 % below the earlier sequence.
This quantity has subsequently been revised down to six.4 %.
The statistics ministry attributed the revision to a shift in focus to measuring value-addition based mostly on a wider dataset of company earnings from volume-based progress in manufacturing.
Nevertheless, comparability throughout years was tough as the brand new sequence solely supplied progress charges ranging from 2012-13. This led to requires a ‘again sequence’.
Again sequence controversy
In July 2018, the Sudipto Mundle-led committee on actual sector statistics, arrange by the Nationwide Statistical Fee, stated India clocked a progress of 10.8 % in 2010-11 as per the brand new GDP sequence. This was increased than the 8.9 % estimated below the outdated sequence.
Additional, the committee’s estimates confirmed GDP progress averaged 8.0 % per yr in the course of the 10 years of the Singh authorities as per the brand new sequence, whereas progress in Modi’s first 4 years as PM averaged 7.3 % per yr.
These numbers spilt over into the political enviornment, with the Congress saying the information proved “like-for-like, the economic system below each UPA phrases outperformed the Modi govt (sic)”.
Nevertheless, a month later in August 2018, the statistics ministry stated the GDP again sequence given by the committee on actual sector statistics was not official however solely “experimental outcomes”.
The official GDP again sequence, launched in November 2018, confirmed GDP grew 7.4 % per yr on common from FY15 to FY18. In the meantime, the annual common GDP progress fee for the final 9 years of Singh’s tenure as PM was revised to six.7 %, main to a different outcry and accusations of political interference within the calculation of India’s official statistics, particularly with the 2019 basic elections simply across the nook.
Full comparability
The numbers now released (exterior hyperlink) by the statistics ministry permit comparisons to be made throughout a number of many years. Among the putting highlights are as follows:
>> The 6.6 % contraction within the GDP in 2020-21 is the biggest ever since 1951-52. The following worst yr was 1979-80, when the GDP contracted by 5.2 %.
>> Since 1951-52, India’s GDP has contracted on six events: by 6.6 % in 2020-21, 5.2 % in 1979-80, 2.6 % in 1965-66, 0.6 % in 1972-73, 0.4 % in 1957-58 and 0.1 % in 1966-67.
>> The 2021-22 GDP growth rate of 8.7 percent is India’s fourth-highest since 1951-52. The best fee of progress of 9.6 % was recorded in 1988-89. As such, India has by no means hit double-digit progress with regards to actual GDP.
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