Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD V-Shaped Recovery Brews

Australian Greenback Technical Value Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Commerce Ranges

• Australian Dollar technical commerce degree replace – Weekly Chart
• AUD/USD snaps again above key technical pivot zone post-FOMC – threat for bigger restoration
• Aussie resistance 7206, 7270/78, 7343/85 (key)- Assist 6991-7016 (key), 6827, 6660

The Australian Dollar surged greater than 3% off the weekly lows on the heels of the Fed with Aussie snapping again above a key assist pivot. The reversal hinges on a weekly shut above this threshold and should gas a bigger restoration within the days forward if achieved. These are the up to date targets and invalidation ranges that matter on the AUD/USD weekly worth charts into the shut. Evaluation my newest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and extra.

Australian Greenback Value Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Ready by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my final AUD/USD Weekly Technical Forecast we warned that, “a rebound off downtrend assist takes the Australian Greenback into downtrend resistance early within the month- threat for topside exhaustion into 7288.” Aussie registered a excessive at 7283 later that week earlier than reversing sharply decrease with worth plummeting practically 6% off the highs. The post-FOMC rally has now recovered again above a crucial pivot zone we’ve been monitoring at 6991-7016 – a area outlined by the November 2020 swing low, the target 2020 yearly open, the 2021 lows and the January low-week shut. Was {that a} near-term exhaustion low?

Preliminary weekly resistance now eyed on the current high-week shut at 7206 backed by the yearly open / 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021 decline / 52-week transferring common at 7270/78. In the end a breach / weekly shut above the 61.8% retracement / 2017 low-week shut at 7343/85 can be wanted to recommend a extra vital low was register this week. A detailed under 6991 this week would hold the deal with subsequent support goals into the 2016 low at 6827, the decrease parallel and the 2008 low-week shut / 2019 low at 6660/70.

Backside line: This might be a near-term exhaustion low in Aussie and the main target is on the weekly shut with respect to 6991-7016. From a buying and selling standpoint, a detailed above this threshold would threat a bigger restoration in direction of downtrend resistance close to the 72-handle. On the other-side of 6991, and issues may collapse moderately quickly- keep nimble right here. The financial docket is mild subsequent week so we’ll proceed to trace worth motion intently into the open on Sunday. I’ll publish an up to date Australian Dollar Price Outlook as soon as we get additional readability on the near-term AUD/USD technical commerce ranges.

For an entire breakdown of Michael’s buying and selling technique, evaluation his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Greenback Dealer Sentiment – AUD/USD Value Chart

• A abstract of IG Client Sentiment exhibits merchants are net-long AUD/USD – the ratio stands at +2.13 (68.09% of merchants are lengthy) – usually bearish studying
• Lengthy positions are 3.26% decrease than yesterday and 14.65% larger from final week
• Quick positions are8.14% larger than yesterday and 21.11% decrease from final week
• We usually take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the very fact merchants are net-long suggests AUD/USD costs could proceed to fall. But merchants are much less net-long than yesterday however extra net-long from final week. The mixture of present positioning and up to date adjustments offers us an extra blended AUD/USD buying and selling bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Energetic Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Observe Michael on Twitter @MBForex