Domestic air travel in April 2022 only 5% lower than pre-Covid levels; rising ATF prices remain a concern

Submit the waning of Covid-19 infections, home passenger visitors has grown ~83% on Y-o-Y foundation to ~10.5 million ~ in April 2022 and is barely ~5% decrease in comparison with ~11.0 million in April 2019 (pre-Covid degree). The airways’ capability deployment for April 2022 was ~36% increased than April 2021 (81,777 departures in April 2022 towards 59,967 departures in April 2021). On a sequential foundation, the variety of departures in April 2022 had been increased by round 2%, given the close to normalcy seen in enterprise operations. Nevertheless, sequentially, the home passenger visitors in April 2022 was nearly flat in comparison with ~10.7 million in March 2022.

As per a current report printed by ICRA on Aviation business, Mr. Suprio Banerjee, Vice President & Sector Head, ICRA stated, “For April 2022, the common every day departures had been at ~2,726, notably increased than the common every day departures of ~2,000 in April 2021, and better in comparison with ~2,588 in March 2022. The typical variety of passengers per flight throughout April 2022 was at 128, towards a median of 133 passengers per flight in March 2022 and decrease than a median of 135 passengers per flight in April 2019. Although restoration in passenger visitors is anticipated to be comparatively quick paced in FY2023, given the close to normalcy scenario seen in home airline operations, overhang of any additional Covid wave looms on the sector. Elevated ATF costs aggravated by geo-political points will stay a close to time period problem for the business and can proceed to weigh on the profitability of Indian carriers.”

With resumption of scheduled worldwide operations since March 27, 2022 and reversion to bilaterally-agreed capability entitlements, the worldwide passenger visitors for Indian carriers in April 2022 surged to ~1.85 million, which additionally marginally surpassed the worldwide passenger visitors of ~1.83 million witnessed in April 2019 (pre-Covid degree).

ATF costs have surged by ~89% on a Y-o-Y foundation in Might 2022 given the elevated crude oil costs, attributable to geo-political points arising from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The rising ATF costs will pose a severe risk to the business earnings in FY2023. On an combination foundation, return to normalcy will result in restoration in passenger load components, which in flip will support revenues; nevertheless, elevated ATF costs will proceed to weigh on the earnings of Indian carriers in FY2023.